Saturday, December 18, 2010

Forex : More on Forex Market Moving Driver

The previous post I highlight about the drivers who will move Forex, you may refer back if you miss it:
Forex: Who & What Drive the Market

Market moving on demand & supply, and Fundamental news, economic data, political and natural disaster affect  market sentiment, thus affect Demand & Supply.

Fundamental News:
1. Interest Rates - one of the most important fundamental news. Example for USD/JPY. If the Bank of Japan decided to increase interest rate, the Yen will strengthen against USD. Good for the term currency. Conversely if Federal Reserve Bank(FED) to increase interest rate, you will want to buy USD/JPY for long.

2. Non-farm Payroll(US) - releases on the first Friday of the month, job created by the economy outside the farming area.A good economy is good for the currency.

3. Employment report(US) - lower employment rate, it's shown a strong economy. Good for the currency.

4. Gross Domestic Production(US) - GDP is total amount of goods & services produced in United States. A strong GDP lead to strong economy, strong currency.

5. Producer Price Index (PPI) - Measures the cost of producing goods, also an indication of production inflation. The FED will take action on interest rate to inflation.

6. Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) - Tracks the manufacturing condition is US. An increase mean strong economy.

7. Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Measures of goods paid by consumer. Increase of CPI with an increase of inflation.

8. Consumer Confident Index (CCI) - Survey of consumer confident. A high level of CCI mean a strong economy, it will strengthen currency.

9. Retail Sales - Indicator of consumer spending in both durable & non-durable product and services. A strong number mean strong economy.

I focus on USD because all the four major pairs involve USD. If you trade USD/JPY, you would like to focus also on Japan fundamental data. As Europe, not only focus on Euro data, but may focus on individual country data, eg like German because German is the largest economy is Europe Union.

For more on Fundamental Data, you can go to : http://www.forexfactory.com/

Major political events will affect the currency rate. Eg, when there is political election in Japan, there are un-certainties on the winner and the next prime minister. The uncertainties tends to strengthen or weaken the currency.

Natural disaster always bad for the country. It will cause lots for economy recovery, it may affect the GDP of the country.

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